John Fortier: McCain och Clinton imponerar

Statsvetaren John Fortier ger sin syn på nattens valresultat.

Good morning to you. Here are some comments on Super Tuesday before I get some sleep. On the Republican side, John McCain won, as expected, but his performance was stronger than expected and Mitt Romney's weaker. He is, without a doubt, the frontrunner in the Republican race.

He will be almost impossible to catch. It looks as if he will have over 600 delegates, and his rivals will have at most 300 delegates. Just under 1200 are needed for the nomination. Mitt Romney will have to seriously consider whether he wants to continue to put his own funds into his campaign and continue in the race. McCain showed that he has appeal in all of the regions of the country. He won impressively by sweeping the northeastern states of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Delaware. He also won in the important midwestern state of Missouri. He did not win southern states, but he was very close to Mike Huckabee in Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee. Most impressive was his big win in California.

On the Democratic side, it was a close race, but Hillary Clinton did better than expected. She will have a lead in delegates coming out of Super Tuesday. This lead does not guarantee her the nomination. It is still close, and Obama could come back in later states, but Clinton was impressive in several places.

Most impressive was the Clinton win in California (results are still coming in). According to exit polls, Clinton will win California by a significant margin. Very importantly, she showed great strength in the Hispanic community. Clinton does not only win the Hispanic vote, but she wins it overwhelmingly.

Going forward, the next few states look like states where Obama will do well. Louisiana this Saturday has a large African american population. So do virginia, DC, and Maryland, which hold their primaries on February 12th. The bottom line on the Democratic side is that Hillary Clinton is a slight frontrunner, but Obama is not out of it, and it will take a long time to decide the ultimate winner. I don't expect it to be settled for at least a month.

Overall, McCain will have to reassure conservatives that he is one of them. He is the most electable Republican, but there are many conservative Republicans who distrust him on issues like immigration and taxes.

One final point. The results on both sides show a continuing problem for Republicans. Democrats have seen higher turnout and enthusiasm on their side. Take for example, the state of Missouri, which is usually a slightly Republican state. On Super Tuesday, about 800,000 people voted on the Democratic side and only 600,000 on the Republican. In general, Democratic turnout was higher across all of the states on Super Tuesday, which is a worrying sign for Republicans for the November election.